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Jalen Brunson’s popularity among New Yorkers is reaching that of Billy Joel and Spider-Man as he leads the New York Knicks against the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals.
The hopes of Big Apple basketball fans rest with the explosive guard, and our Knicks vs. Spurs predictions call for Brunson to do damage from deep in Game 1.
My NBA picks like him to knock down at least three triples on June 3.
Knicks vs Spurs Game 1 predictionKnicks vs Spurs best bet: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 made threes (+135)The San Antonio Spurs did a great job bottling up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but face a different can of worms in New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson.
Where an attacking SGA would avoid the arc like an ex-girlfriend, Brunson is a pull-up threat the second he crosses half.
With Victor Wembanyama lurking in the key, the Knicks need to stretch a Spurs defense that doesn’t have much length beyond Wemby. That means smaller defenders and cleaner looks for Brunson.
Projections lean toward a trio of triples from Brunson with an underdog game script giving Over 2.5 threes a shot in the arm at plus-money.
COVERS INTEL: San Antonio didn’t have a defender within at least four feet on 93% of OKC’s 3-point attempts in the WCF. Brunson laps up those looks and went a collective 10 for 24 from distance in three meetings with the Spurs this season.“Rest vs. Rust” is on everyone’s mind but New York’s extended break has the Knicks at nearly 100% health (save for Mitchell Robinson’s pinkie). That means OG Anunoby is recovered from a hamstring injury and leads the charge in frustrating Victor Wembanyama. New York has better defensive options than the Spurs, which makes them a dangerous Three-and-D foe.
I like the Knicks to keep it closer than bookies expect.
Jalen Brunson’s 3-point attempts prop sits at 6.5 O/U for Game 1, but if San Antonio plays the perimeter as passive as it did versus the Thunder, Brunson will make the most of that space.
He’s had to deal with longer defenders closing out in the first three rounds, but San Antonio doesn’t have that same size in the backcourt. Brunson’s projections and game script, with New York playing from behind, all give life to three or more makes from long range.
Karl-Anthony Towns has thrived as a “point forward” for New York in the playoffs, doubling his assist output from the regular season to almost six dimes per game.
With Wembanyama defending Josh Hart, in order to stay close to the key, KAT will get picked up by much smaller forwards. That creates space for cuts and screens underneath and the taller Towns can pass over the top to those waiting hands.
He can also drive from the top of the key or post up smaller defenders, collapsing the Spurs defense and kicking out to open shooters.
His Game 1 models aren’t as bullish on his assists (3.5), but KAT has recorded five or more dimes in nine of his last 11 playoff games.
Knicks vs Spurs SGP- Knicks +4.5
- Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 4.5 assists
- Spread: Knicks +4.5 | Spurs -4.5
- Moneyline: Knicks +155 | Spurs -185
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5
The Knicks are 31-11 SU when Jalen Brunson makes three or more 3-pointers. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Knicks.
How to watch Knicks vs Spurs Game 1| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, June 3, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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