The last time the New York Knicks made the NBA Finals was back in 1999, and they faced the San Antonio Spurs. Leading the Spurs at the time was a star big man in 22-year-old Tim Duncan. This time, they face a 22-year-old Victor Wembanyama. Some of the franchise trajectories heading into this series are eerily similar to the past.

What separates these two teams is how they were built.

The ever debated topic of building through the draft or through trades and free agency also clashes in this matchup. The Spurs drafted Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson — five of their main seven rotation players. They also promoted a head coach from within in Mitch Johnson.

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The Knicks, on the other hand, signed Jalen Brunson in free agency and traded for Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby — all in separate deals. They also brought in Mike Brown to coach from outside the organization. It shows there is no right way to build in the NBA. Making the NBA Finals starts with lots of correct organizational decisions stacked atop of one another, however they come.

While the storylines are awesome, the question we’re looking to answer in this article is: How do we stack good decisions atop one another in betting this series? How is the market reacting for Game 1? What player props can we target?

Here are my NBA Finals best bets:

Series best bet: Spurs 4-1 correct score (+380)

The early money coming in on this series that is influential enough to move lines has backed the Spurs. In lookahead prices before the matchup was certain, the Knicks were +4.5 for Game 1, and now the line has pushed to a consensus +5. There has been a power rating bump for San Antonio after it beat the Oklahoma City Thunder; and it’s noteworthy De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper both looked healthy doing it.

My model and projections are in line with the early market. I price the game at Spurs -6.5 before factoring in the rest disadvantage that San Antonio has against a New York team that will have had nine days rest after sweeping the Cavaliers.

We have already seen New York in two scenarios this postseason with large rest advantages going against a team that won Game 7 on the road: the Philadelphia 76ers in Round 2 and the Cleveland Cavaliers in Round 3. In both of those games, the Knicks got a 1.5-to-2-point market correction on their side because of the rest advantage. Going from New York +6.5 model in my model to a +5 in the market with the Knicks’ rest advantage makes sense.

The key to this detail is that I suspect Game 2 for San Antonio makes them closer to a 6- or 6.5-point favorite as the rest advantage neutralizes a bit. Look at Cleveland as a 6.5-point road underdog for Game 1, and then +5 in Game 2. The Knicks' rest advantage was phased out of the market. 

This brings me to the bet. Even projecting the Spurs as a 5-point favorite in Game 1, a 6.5-point favorite Game 2, with standard home-court advantage flip and Knicks as a half-point favorite in New York, the correct score bet 4-1 should be +310, not +380. This provides an actionable edge at around 15%. That is very large, the biggest I can remember pricing out this postseason. This edge hinges on being right that the Game 2 market moves toward San Antonio, likely regardless of the Game 1 results.

Game 1 player prop: Mikal Bridges under 2.5 assists (+130)

The NBA playoffs are all about matchups.

Mikal Bridges will be tasked as the primary perimeter defender on ball against the Spurs — which will rotate between Fox and Castle. When Bridges has gotten the primary perimeter matchup defensively, his offensive usage rate has dropped significantly — directly impacting his assist opportunities.

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Taking a look at Bridges' defensive stats in the Knicks’ first three series is very insightful. Against the Atlanta Hawks, Bridges was on the ball against Nickeil Alexander-Walker and CJ McCollum for 207 possessions. Against the Philadelphia 76ers, it was primarily Tyrese Maxey (140 possessions in four games). But in the four games against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bridges had only 40 possessions against Donovan Mitchell and only seven minutes matched up against him. Bridges was primarily on James Harden who has clearly lost his speed and burst.

Bridges has under 2 assists in nine out of 14 playoff games (64%), but that number increases to 70% when you key in on his defensive assignment. Bridges will be a focal point defensively against San Antonio, and offensively will be asked to use his length to shoot 3s and to score in the mid range.

True market odds price this at +120, and we can grab a +130 as an actionable edge from both a market and basketball perspective.

Game 1 total: Under 218.5

We know how good San Antonio’s defense is with Wembanyama — the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year — controlling the paint and providing elite rim protection, a few studs on the perimeter and a defensive lead assistant in Sean Sweeney who just got poached to be the Orlando Magic head coach next season because of how he operations the Spurs’ defense. The Spurs forced the Thunder to have five of their worst 10 offensive games this season (playoffs and regular season combined).

The Knicks quietly have the No. 1 defense in the NBA playoffs, though. New York has a 104.3 defensive net rating (first), allows the least points per game at 100.6, and is third best in opponent field goal percentage at 43.3%. They also matchup hunt offensively and that will slow the clock down.

While this is a consensus number right now without a market edge, I think there will be a move towards the under between now and tip, and we should be fronting the news. The likely closing line value will generate the positive expected value to come.

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