Well, the new NBA balls have finally dropped, lottery balls for the 2027 draft, that is. The 2025-26 season did indeed prove to be the shameless display of deliberates losing for the sake of meager odds that (perhaps) broke tanking. Today the NBABOG or National Basketball Association Board of Governors (an NBA Governor is usually, but not always, a team owner) voted on a new lottery system. The new system will take effect in the 2027 draft.

The system is somewhat abstruse, but looks to severely disincentivize even the already flattened odds of garnering a top pick. The new system will expand the draft lottery to 16 teams, which includes all the non playoff teams, and the teams in the play-in games. The system works by assigning a number of lottery balls based on where a team finishes record wise.

Teams that finish outside the bottom three, but not in the play in games, will receive 3 lottery balls. The number 9 and 10 teams in the play-in games will receive two, the 7 and 8 play-in teams will receive one ball apiece. The three teams with worst regular season records will receive two lottery balls (one of their three balls being “relegated” to the nether hells of the NBA, never to sire a draft pick).

The Two Ball Three will have some protection for being so outright bad though: they will not pick lower than 12th in the lottery. The worst three teams’ odds of receiving a top pick are, of course, one third worse than teams that finish outside the bottom three, and no better than the 9th and 10th play in teams, minus the top 12 guarantee. There is a real sense of reward for a play-in team, with one or two balls in the lottery.

There are further anti-tank provisions. No team may receive two #1 picks in a row, and no team may receive a top five pick in three consecutive years.

There is also a provision against protecting picks top 12 through top 15. (I’m not entirely sure what this means, that’s the NBA’s official language.) The NBABOG will revisit the system in 2029 to determine whether to keep the lottery balls in place, adjust them, or replace them with something else.

Here are some graphics provided by the NBA and it’s fabulous BOG to explain the new system:

Here is sample draft order, again from nba.com and the astonishing BOG.

Here’s the article itself, straight from the BOG.

This is all very interesting, and I think, at first glance, that it will at least improve the quality of regular season games, especially late in the season. It’s better to get out of the top three if a team has it’s own pick. What happens if it doesn’t? I’m not sure, probably it just behaves as a Bottom Three Two Ball pick? Do some protections on picks get removed in 2027 and beyond? Again, it’s currently unclear. What happens if a team picked #1 and then gets #1 again the following season? Does that pick get moved to #2? Again, it’s unclear right now. We will have to await publication of the full language of the resolution, (which I haven’t found at this time).

What does this all mean to the Rockets? It might mean a great deal, despite some saying 2027 is a lesser draft than 2026. It might mean that certain picks for 2027 are suddenly a lot more attractive, as they have a real shot at winning the draft lottery. Next year the Rockets hold their own pick, Phoenix’s pick, and Brooklyn’s pick (there’s further language about who gets the best and worst of these picks). Let’s say, though, that the Rockets are a playoff team, well, they’d pick as normal, in a reverse standings fashion after pick 16. What about Phoenix and Brooklyn? If Phoenix is again a play in team, that’s one or two balls in the lottery. If Brooklyn is 4th worst or above, and not a play in team, that’s three balls. If it’s Bottom Three, that’s two balls, but no worse than 12th.

Those extra chances in the lottery should have a great deal of value. Let’s assume the Rockets just get the BKN and PHX picks. Brooklyn has no incentive not to finish bottom three, but they have no real incentive to be terrible, either. Phoenix might well be a 9th or 10th seed again.

If a team had a pick in this draft that was good, not great, would they swap it for some balls next year? They might well do that, as even in a lesser year, a, say, 5th pick is likely to be better than a 20th, judging by history. This might get the Rockets one of the intriguing guards in this draft. Or nothing may happen, of course.

Anyhow, there will surely be more to come on the ins and outs of these new balls in the fullness of time.