Thunder vs. Spurs – NBA WCF – Game 5 – predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for May 26
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The NBA’s Western Conference Final is tied at two games apiece as the series moves back to Oklahoma City for tonight’s Game 5 between the Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs.

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs dominated Game 4 to even the series Sunday evening. Wemby’s stat line illustrated that dominance: 33 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 blocks. A definite factor in that dominance, though, was the absence of Ajay Mitchell (calf)and Jalen Williams (hamstring) for OKC. That said, this is now a Best-of-3 series.

Those injuries have forced Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into heavier ball‑handling duties and limiting his off‑ball effectiveness. In Games 3 and 4, SGA shot a combined 12‑for‑32, a sign of how effectively San Antonio has disrupted his usual flow. The OKC offense has seemed a little clunky as a result. The Thunder’s bench—normally a major strength—also struggled in Game 4, posting a collective -9.4 after previously leading the postseason in bench scoring. Couple their bench woes with San Antonio’s starting five outscoring OKC’s starters by an average of 31.7 points in the series—and you can see why the Spurs have momentum heading back on the road.

The difference in what is now a Best of 3 may well be which Chet Holmgren shows up. He has shot 58.8% in OKC’s wins but only 33.3% in their losses. His efficiency and his involvement looking to score makes a difference.

Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to Watch Game 5 Live: Thunder vs. Spurs

  • Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2026
  • Time: 8:30PM EST
  • Site: Paycom Center
  • City: Oklahoma City, OK
  • Network/Streaming: NBC/Peacock

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Game 5 Odds: Thunder vs. Spurs

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder (-198), San Antonio Spurs (+164)
  • Spread: Thunder -5.5
  • Total: 216.5 points

This game opened Thunder -5.5 with the Game Total set at 215.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule! 

Expected Starting Lineups for Game 5: Thunder vs. Spurs

Oklahoma City Thunder
  • PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
  • SG Cason Wallace
  • C Isaiah Hartenstein
  • SF Luguentz Dort
  • PF Chet Holmgren
San Antonio Spurs
  • PG De’Aaron Fox
  • SG Devin Vassell
  • SG Stephon Castle
  • PF Julian Champagnie
  • C Victor Wembanyama
Injury Report: Thunder vs. SpursOklahoma City Thunder
  • Thomas Sorber (knee) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
  • Ajay Mitchel (calf) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
  • Jalen Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
San Antonio Spurs
  • David Jones Garcia (ankle) has been declared OUT for tonight’s game
Important stats, trends and insights: Thunder vs. Spurs
  • The Thunder are 39-8 at home this season
  • The Spurs are 34-14 on the road this season
  • The Spurs are 55-41-2 ATS this season
  • OKC is 46-47-1 ATS this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 53 of the Thunder’s 94 games this season (53-41)
  • The OVER has cashed in 45 of the Spurs’ 98 games this season (45-53)
  • Alex Caruso took just 1 shot in Game 4 after averaging over 8 per game through the series' first 3 games
  • Jared McCain was 1-10 from the field in Game 4 after shooting 17-41 in the first 3 games of the series.
  • After turning the ball over 19 games in the first 2 games of the series, Stephon Castle has committed just 2 the last 2 games.
  • De’Aaron Fox has 17 rebounds and 11 assists over the last 2 games
Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
 
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s Thunder and Spurs’ game:
  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Spurs +5.5
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 216.5

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar! 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: 

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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