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Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s primetime Thunder-Knicks showdown, and the model has highlighted a few plays that really stand out.
We crunched the numbers, matched our projections against the market, and zeroed in on the spots with real value.
For these Thunder vs. Knicks predictions, it’s not guesswork — it’s data-driven.
If you’re putting together your card, these are the NBA picks the model likes most for Wednesday, March 4.
Thunder vs Knicks computer picks for March 4| Thunder | Knicks |
|---|---|
| Joe o9.5 points -112 | Towns o17.5 points -112 |
| Gilgeous-Alexander o1.5 3-pointers +160 | Brunson o5.5 assists -140 |
| Holmgren o7.5 rebounds -135 | Hart o7.5 rebounds +110 |
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Projection: 10.4 points
Isaiah Joe has found a groove on the road lately, averaging 15.8 points over his last five away games. That’s 5.5 points higher than his usual road average this season.
Even without home-court advantage, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been the third-highest scoring offense in the NBA over their last 25 games.
Joe’s also been clearing this number consistently, hitting the Over in eight of his last 10 games when the line is set at 9.5 points.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 3-pointersProjection: 1.8 3-pointers
The Thunder have been letting it fly lately, ranking seventh in the NBA in 3-point attempts over their last 15 games.
That sets the stage perfectly for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who draws a New York Knicks squad that’s had its issues defending the perimeter all season.
If there’s a spot for him to heat up from deep, this is it.
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Chet Holmgren Over 7.5 rebounds (-135)Projection: 9.1 rebounds
Chet Holmgren has been clearing this number consistently, going Over 7.5 rebounds in eight of his last 10 games, and the matchup sets up well for him to keep that trend rolling against the Knicks.
The Knicks play at a steady pace and aren’t shy about putting shots up from the perimeter, which often leads to long rebound opportunities for a mobile big like Holmgren. His length and timing give him an edge tracking those boards outside of his immediate area.
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Knicks computer picksKarl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points (-112)
Projection: 18.7 points
The Thunder are known for pushing the tempo by ranking sixth in pace over their last five games, which should translate into extra possessions for the Knicks.
That uptick in opportunity bodes well for Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s gone Over 17.5 points in six of his last 10 games and continues to see the kind of volume that can take advantage of a faster game script.
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Jalen Brunson Over 5.5 assists (-140)Projection: 6.3 assists
With OKC speeding things up as of late, more opportunities have been created. That kind of game flow should work in favor of the Knicks.
That creates a nice setup for Jalen Brunson, who’s gone Over 5.5 assists in seven of his last 10 games. With extra trips up and down the floor, he should have plenty of chances to rack up dimes.
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Josh Hart Over 7.5 rebounds (+110)Projection: 7.7 rebounds
Josh Hart has been a consistent force on the boards lately, going Over 6.5 rebounds in five of his last 10 games. Tonight’s matchup against the Thunder sets up nicely for him to keep that streak alive.
Additionally, Hart often positions himself well in transition, snagging rebounds that turn into fast-break chances.
With his minutes stable and the matchup favorable, there’s a solid path for him to hit the Over on 6.5 rebounds once again tonight.
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How to watch Thunder vs Knicks tonight| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, March 4, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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